AUSTIN, Texas -- The IC recovery is here, but what about the overall economy?
''Not all is over with our economy,'' said Angelos Angelou, founder and principal executive officer for AngelouEconomics, an economic development and site selection consultancy based here.
''We have some things to work out,'' he warned during a presentation at the ISMI Symposium here. ''We have some ugly things on the horizon.''
The event is sponsored by the International Sematech Manufacturing Initiative (ISMI), part of International Sematech (Albany, N.Y.). In the sobering presentation, entitled ''The US Economic Recovery: The Good, The Bad And The Ugly," Angelou made several predictions--and how to move the economy forward. Here are some of the predictions:
1. U.S. economy will shrink until April of 2010. Growth will resume in 2011.
2. U.S. housing starts have stabilized, but the foreclosure rate is going to accelerate. Commercial real estate is at risk, with $1 trillion to be refinanced.
3. U.S. retail sales are declining. Christmas season sales are projected to fall 2-to-3 percent in 2009, compared to minus 3 percent in 2008.
4. The credit markets are still frozen. The bank-bail outs have amounted to $900 billion, but ''not a penny'' has been lent to small businesses.
5. Overall venture capital spending is down, from $22.38 million in 2008, to $12.28 million so far this year.
6. To date, the U.S. has lost 1 million manufacturing jobs in 2008 and 2009. Manufacturing jobs will be lost permanently.
7. U.S. has shed 7.4 million jobs since December of 2007. U.S. unemployment could hit 15 million, perhaps 23 million. U.S. must create 140,000 new jobs per month.
8. Small business failures will accelerate.
9. Federal debt represents 70 percent of GNP. Debt will represent 82-to-83 percent by 2018-to-2019.
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