SAN FRANCISCO -- Semicon West is over.
And simply put, it was a gloomy affair. The fab tool side of the house was depressing amid the downturn. Even the solar part of the show was tepid, as that industry is also seeing a downturn.
In 2009, the fab tool market is projected to fall by 52 percent over 2008, according to a mid-year forecast from SEMI (San Jose, Calif.). The semiconductor materials market is projected to fall 16.4 percent in 2009, according to the trade group.
At the show, here's what analysts and executives said about the business in general:
Andre-Jacques Auberton-Herve, president of Soitec Group
''We are still in unknown territory (in terms of the downturn). This downturn is not something you can map out. But we're seeing a rebound at Soitec.''
Keith Barnes, Verigy Inc.'s chairman, president and CEO
''The third quarter will be telling for the industry. The first quarter (of next year) will be more telling. I think the recovery will be a grind in every quarter for the next couple of years.''
Chris Beitel, general manager for the Thin Film Products/Solar Business Group at Applied Materials Inc.
''Solar is a mixed bag. There is overcapacity. This is the first downturn for solar.''
Joseph Bronson, chief executive of SVTC Technologies Inc.
''I think we're looking at a string of 'W's' (in terms of growth patterns). The industry is bullish about 2010. I'm not.''
Harvey Frye, president of Tokyo Electron America Inc.
''We in the equipment industry are bouncing along the bottom. This year will begin a sustained recovery for the device industry.''
Richard Hill, chairman and chief executive of Novellus Systems Inc.
''We believe the semiconductor industry is coming back. It isn't dying.''
Robert Johnson, an analyst with Gartner Inc.
''When will the overall IC industry become profitable again? Overall industry profitability should return in 2010, but memory lags until 2011''
Mark Melliar-Smith, chief executive of Molecular Imprints Inc. (MII)
''We're going strong. We're still hiring.''
Edwin Mok, an analyst at Needham & Co. LLC
''Intel reported 2Q09 results that substantially beat expectations and provided higher guidance. While enterprise likely to remain soft this year, we see more pent-up demand for enterprise PCs in 2010, which could drive stronger growth. Intel reduced capex from down-slightly year-over-year to $4.7 billion on better reuse in 32-nm.''
Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of SEMI
''It remains a challenging year, but we see signs of improvement.''
Tom St. Dennis, senior vice president and general manager of Applied Materials Inc.'s Silicon Systems Group
''The current size of the wafer fabrication equipment industry does not support the significant levels of R&D spending needed to follow Moore's Law and deliver leading-edge systems and processes to customers.''
Brian Trafas, chief marketing officer at KLA-Tencor Corp.
''There are technology buys out there, but the market is still tough.''