DRAM makers continue to push out the target date for DDR3, the follow-on technology to today's DDR2 SDRAM parts. South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and others believe that DDR3 will become the mainstream DRAM technology by year's end.

In a report, however, Needham & Co. LLC (New York) provided a mixed outlook for memory-module maker Smart Modular Technologies Inc. and warned about delays for DDR3.

''We maintain our 'Hold' on SMOD (Smart Modular) after the company posted better than expected profits, but provided conservative outlook,'' said Edwin Mok, an analyst at Needham. ''We believe ongoing weakness in enterprise spending and slow adoption of new DDR3 platforms will continue to limit core DRAM business.''

DDR3 could be late to the party. ''Given softness in the server sector, we expect weak demand for high-end server memory over the next 1-2 quarters, and major transition to DDR3 to delay to CY 2010,'' he said.

''I never really believe DDR3 will grow to anything meaningful this year,'' he said in an e-mail. ''None of the DRAM chip makers want to push it, especially with no preimum but higher costs. The only driver is Intel Nehalem, but looks like that will be a slow ramp, especially with slower demand.''

He was referring to Intel Corp.'s next-generation processor, dubbed Nehalem, a 45-nm device based on high-k and metal gates. The device boasts an integrated memory controller that enables three channels of DDR3 1,066-MHz memory, resulting in up to 25.6-GB/sec memory bandwidth.

In any case, a DDR3 delay could be trouble for Elpida, Hynix, Micron, Samsung and others, many of which were banking on DDR3 in 2009. So far, DDR3 has shown up mostly in high-end PCs and gaming systems, where its ability to access information faster than its predecessor has a noticeable impact on advanced graphics, video processing and other computing intensive applications.

DRAM—which even for the volatile IC industry is especially prone to huge boom- and bust-cycles—is hurting. DRAM and the broader memory IC markets were already in the midst of a tough year when the world financial crisis hit and the market collapsed.

All DRAM makers are losing money now, including Samsung. And the handwriting is on the wall for Q1 and beyond: More losses and pain.