SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Another gloomy IC forecast: Following a revenue decline of 2 percent in 2008, IDC expects the chip market will fall by 22 percent in 2009.
This is due to double-digit declines in unit shipments of key system markets, low utilization rates, and price erosion.
Other key findings from the research firm:
*''Macroeconomic factors will bottom at the end of 2009 and won't recover until mid 2010. U.S. will lead the worldwide recovery.''
*''DRAM and NAND markets stabilize by 2H '09, but revenue growth does not return until 2010.''
*''Dedicated foundry market remains unstable through 1H '09, as utilization rates bottom by the middle of the year and then gradually recover.''
*''Capital spending declines by more than 45 percent in 2009.''
A recovery is not due until 2010. ''The semiconductor industry downturn will be prolonged by macroeconomic uncertainty this year," said Mario Morales, vice president for semiconductor research at IDC, in a statement. "With demand visibility low, utilization rates at frozen levels, and supplier inventories growing because of deteriorating demand targets, IDC does not expect year-over-year growth for semiconductor revenues until the second quarter of 2010.''
"The semiconductor market, which is tightly correlated to GDP, will not reach an inflection point until GDP rises and consumer spending rebounds," added Brianne Lovett, research manager at IDC. "The semiconductor market will begin to stabilize at the end of 2009 and improve in 2010 with a positive growth rate. However, the market will not rise to the levels seen in 2007 and 2008, until beyond 2011.''
This week, others had gloomy forecasts. Gartner Inc. has cut its IC forecast--again. Worldwide semiconductor revenue is forecast to reach $194.5 billion in 2009, a 24.1 percent decline from 2008 revenue.
Worldwide IC revenue is projected to decline by nearly 20 percent in 2009 to $199.2 billion, according to In-Stat Inc.
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