SUNNYVALE, Calif. -- The current IC downturn has already taken its toll on the semiconductor industry in 2009.
And it's only February. Most--if not all--chip makers are bracing for tough economic conditions for the remainder of this year and perhaps beyond.
One semiconductor and EDA veteran sees a ray of hope. Just think positive, said Jack Harding, president, chief executive and chairman of eSilicon Corp. (Sunnyvale, Calif.), a fabless ASIC vendor.
''I've never been a doomsdayer,'' Harding said at the company's headquarters here. ''We'll get through it.''
There is still plenty of IC design activity going on despite market conditions. And surprisingly, there is even movement at the bleeding-edge of design. ''Right now, we're shipping 65-nm,'' he said. ''We're designing 40-nm. We're even getting quotes for 28-nm.''
Despite his upbeat sentiments, Harding also disclosed some sobering news about ASICs and the IC market as a whole. "The ASIC business will become fabless one day, with one or two exceptions,'' he said.
The ''two exceptions'' to the rule could end up being Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. and Japan's Toshiba Corp., he said. Both vendors will continue to own fabs.
Most ASIC vendors with fabs are struggling, simply because of the costs associated with expensive plants. Even IBM Corp., one of the world's largest ASIC vendors, could go fabless over the next two years or so, Harding said.
''The 'common platform' is a soft landing for IBM's semiconductor business,'' he said, referring to the process technology platform devised by IBM's ''fab club.''
IBM could one day spin-off its chip unit and outsource its IC production to technology partners, analysts indicated. Fujitsu, NEC, TI and other IDMs also make ASICs, which represent the old guard in the arena.
Altera, eSilicon, Global Unichip, Open-Silicon and others are in the fabless ASIC camp, which is the trend. Simply put, the fabless ASIC model will prevail over time, he said.
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