After a projected decline of 16 percent to $17.3 billion in 2009, revenue from pure-play foundries is expected to increase by 25 percent in 2010, reaching $21.7 billion, according to the forecast. Total foundry sales, including sales from integrated device manufacturers that allocate a portion of their capacity for foundry work, are projected to be $25.5 billion in 2010, according to the forecast.

By 2013, total foundry revenue is expected to rise to nearly $41 billion, including nearly $35 billion from pure-play foundries alone, according to the forecast.

Total foundry sales are expected to account for 12.1 percent of all IC sales in 2010, according to IC Insights. The total impact of foundry sales—including revenue paid to the foundry and revenue collected by the chip company that ultimately sells the part into the market—is expected to account for 26.7 percent of all IC sales in 2010, according to the forecast.

By 2013, IC Insights expects that the total impact of foundry sales will account for 31.2 percent of all IC sales.

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Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, said the foundry segment rebounded quickly from the downturn which decimated business in late 2008 and the first part of 2009. Monthly sales at the two leading foundries—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC) —have already returned to where they were prior to the financial crisis that emerged last year, he noted. UMC's sales for August were higher than any month of 2008, he noted.

"They're back like nothing happened," McClean said.

McClean said foundries are really pushing to get higher revenue per wafer, and also scaling back investment in new capacity and equipment. Capital spending outlays by the "big four" foundries— TSMC, UMC, Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. —are projected to be $3.5 billion in 2009, up 1 percent from 2008, when their capital spending declined by 31 percent, McClean said.

In 2000, capital spending by the big four was roughly $8.8 billion, according to IC Insights.

Chartered is set to be acquired by Abu Dhabi's Advanced Technology Investment Co. (ATIC), which plans to fold the company into the newest big player in the foundry business, Globalfoundries Inc.

McClean said it remains to be seen what impact the emergence of Globalfoundries would have on the foundry segment. But he added that he likes the company's focus of supplying leading-edge process technology.

During a forecast seminar here Thursday (Sept. 17), McClean also asserted a historically low level of capital spending by chipmakers is paving the way for a tight market that will boost chip average selling prices, but may have other ramifications.