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tb1
"There is still a very big captive Japanese market, but the next battle could be ...
timemerchant
I think Fujitsu make FPGAs for Lattice Semi. Take a printer apart and look at ...
Japan Inc. faces choppy seas
Junko Yoshida
2/7/2012 5:07 PM EST
Nikkei, Japan’s economic journal, reported Wednesday (Feb. 8th) the potential merger of the SoC design/development divisions of Japan’s big three electronics companies – Renesas, Fujitsu and Panasonic – into one new company.
Separately, according to Nikkei, the three companies will spin off their chip manufacturing divisions and create a new entity focused on production. That joint venture will reportedly receive a huge capital infusion from a Japanese government-backed investment fund called Innovation Network Corp. of Japan (INCJ), and Global Foundries is reportedly expected to become a part of that joint venture.
The Nikkei report is sketchy at best since none of the Japanese companies supposedly involved in the deal is talking.
The blueprint for such a complex merger/joint venture plan has fingerprints of Japan’s bureaucrats at Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (MEITI) all over it. Practically speaking, such business engineering makes little sense.
The plan may salvage the weaker players of the three (read: Fujitsu and Panasonic) to survive for several more years through government handouts. But the move threatens the potential winner of the three (Renesas Mobile) with a reduction to irrelevancy in the already very competitive mobile SoC market.
Let’s break down the proposed deal.
First, Japan’s semiconductor companies have already undergone a series of consolidations. Renesas merged with the chip division of Mitsubishi, then with NEC’s chip division in 2009.
Even now, Renesas is still sorting out all the assets it acquired through its various transactions. But Renesas made a strategic decision in 2010 to spin off Renesas Mobile, as a 100 percent subsidiary, solely focused on SoCs for the mobile business.
In particular, for Renesas Mobile, which is looking to become “the Qualcomm alternative" in the mobile world, I doubt the infusion of Fujitsu Semiconductor’s mostly ASIC-centric business and Panasonic’s mostly inward-looking captive LSI development business could help advance its cause. Not much, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, for Panasonic, the handwriting has been on the wall for awhile. The Japanese consumer electronics giant may have had its moment a decade ago, as it developed its home-grown Uniphier LSI chips, originally designed as an engine for a host of the company’s own digital consumer electronics products. A good idea at the time, and the company indeed harbored ambitions of extending its chip business to external customers. But that plan has steadily faded as SoC power houses in Taiwan like MStar; and MediaTek have emerged in the last several years.
Late last fall, Panasonic announced its plan to shrink its semiconductor business by shedding about 1,000 employees and outsourcing chip production. Panasonic's internal IC consumption, which accounts for 50 percent of its total output, is expected to fall further as the company cuts back TV production. For Panasonic, which has been exploring ways to restructure its semiconductor business, the proposed merger plan with Renesas and Fujitsu must be a God’s send. Suddenly, it has a place to unload its fabs and engineers.
What’s ailing Fujitsu Semiconductor is the lack of a platform. Fujitsu remains primarily an ASIC company. It may excel in crafting great ASICs for domestic system buyers, but it has never been able to transform its business into an ASSP supplier. Again, the assets Fujitsu Semiconductor could bring to the three-way Japan Inc. chip joint venture remains unclear. Perhaps, more Japanese customers, like NTT Docomo. But surely not many global customers.
Even more mysterious is the proposed scenario of merging all three companies’ chip manufacturing units. How could the combined fabs dumped by the three companies become a viable chip production venture? And, precisely, what role will Globalfoundries play?
This whole maneuver of creating two separate JVs (one for chip design and another for chip manufacturing) could be simply a convenient way for the three companies to unload a lot of assets they no longer want – without being painted as “job-killing” villains in the Japanese society. (Layoffs and fab closures are particularly problematic in Japan)
But a lack of leadership, or an endemic case of indecisiveness (postponing the inevitable year after year), is costing the Japanese electronics industry dearly. Once the highest flying industry in the Land of Rising Sun, the electronics sector is now blindly huddling together — like orphans in a boxcar — with little idea of its future.
There is a Japanese saying: “If we cross the street (river, or whatever) together, there will be nothing to fear.” But right now, the view from the boxcar is pretty fearful, and nobody wants to cross the tracks.
Separately, according to Nikkei, the three companies will spin off their chip manufacturing divisions and create a new entity focused on production. That joint venture will reportedly receive a huge capital infusion from a Japanese government-backed investment fund called Innovation Network Corp. of Japan (INCJ), and Global Foundries is reportedly expected to become a part of that joint venture.
The Nikkei report is sketchy at best since none of the Japanese companies supposedly involved in the deal is talking.
The blueprint for such a complex merger/joint venture plan has fingerprints of Japan’s bureaucrats at Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (MEITI) all over it. Practically speaking, such business engineering makes little sense.
The plan may salvage the weaker players of the three (read: Fujitsu and Panasonic) to survive for several more years through government handouts. But the move threatens the potential winner of the three (Renesas Mobile) with a reduction to irrelevancy in the already very competitive mobile SoC market.
Let’s break down the proposed deal.
First, Japan’s semiconductor companies have already undergone a series of consolidations. Renesas merged with the chip division of Mitsubishi, then with NEC’s chip division in 2009.
Even now, Renesas is still sorting out all the assets it acquired through its various transactions. But Renesas made a strategic decision in 2010 to spin off Renesas Mobile, as a 100 percent subsidiary, solely focused on SoCs for the mobile business.
In particular, for Renesas Mobile, which is looking to become “the Qualcomm alternative" in the mobile world, I doubt the infusion of Fujitsu Semiconductor’s mostly ASIC-centric business and Panasonic’s mostly inward-looking captive LSI development business could help advance its cause. Not much, in my opinion.
Meanwhile, for Panasonic, the handwriting has been on the wall for awhile. The Japanese consumer electronics giant may have had its moment a decade ago, as it developed its home-grown Uniphier LSI chips, originally designed as an engine for a host of the company’s own digital consumer electronics products. A good idea at the time, and the company indeed harbored ambitions of extending its chip business to external customers. But that plan has steadily faded as SoC power houses in Taiwan like MStar; and MediaTek have emerged in the last several years.
Late last fall, Panasonic announced its plan to shrink its semiconductor business by shedding about 1,000 employees and outsourcing chip production. Panasonic's internal IC consumption, which accounts for 50 percent of its total output, is expected to fall further as the company cuts back TV production. For Panasonic, which has been exploring ways to restructure its semiconductor business, the proposed merger plan with Renesas and Fujitsu must be a God’s send. Suddenly, it has a place to unload its fabs and engineers.
What’s ailing Fujitsu Semiconductor is the lack of a platform. Fujitsu remains primarily an ASIC company. It may excel in crafting great ASICs for domestic system buyers, but it has never been able to transform its business into an ASSP supplier. Again, the assets Fujitsu Semiconductor could bring to the three-way Japan Inc. chip joint venture remains unclear. Perhaps, more Japanese customers, like NTT Docomo. But surely not many global customers.
Even more mysterious is the proposed scenario of merging all three companies’ chip manufacturing units. How could the combined fabs dumped by the three companies become a viable chip production venture? And, precisely, what role will Globalfoundries play?
This whole maneuver of creating two separate JVs (one for chip design and another for chip manufacturing) could be simply a convenient way for the three companies to unload a lot of assets they no longer want – without being painted as “job-killing” villains in the Japanese society. (Layoffs and fab closures are particularly problematic in Japan)
But a lack of leadership, or an endemic case of indecisiveness (postponing the inevitable year after year), is costing the Japanese electronics industry dearly. Once the highest flying industry in the Land of Rising Sun, the electronics sector is now blindly huddling together — like orphans in a boxcar — with little idea of its future.
There is a Japanese saying: “If we cross the street (river, or whatever) together, there will be nothing to fear.” But right now, the view from the boxcar is pretty fearful, and nobody wants to cross the tracks.
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Rich Krajewski
2/7/2012 9:57 PM EST
Further evidence that this is a worldwide Golden Age of Engineering.
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WW Thinker
2/8/2012 5:21 AM EST
Junko is right with "a lack of leadership, or an endemic case of indecisiveness". For instance,"Renesas Mobile, which is looking to become 'the Qualcomm alternative’ in the mobile world" will likely become a dream. As of today, no major mobile phone OEM/ODM ever announced the use of any RMC's SOC. In fact, I am wondering why none of the most recent (of last 10 years at least) leaders of the Japan-based SOC companies ever show any spirit of the Samurai by publicly admitting their shame, given that their companies keep downsized in the past 15 years.
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junko.yoshida
2/8/2012 12:51 PM EST
I am not sure if Samurai exist any more except for the Western films...but you have a point here. Definitely the Japanese chip companies are struggling.
How such a proposed consolidation will be translated in the market size, please read Dylan's story here:
http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-blogs/other/4235971/Rumored-Japanese-chip-merger-by-the-numbers
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WW Thinker
2/8/2012 1:33 PM EST
A good business is to make money, to take all the necessary action to right the wrongs, to become prosperous, and to ultimately benefit both the investors and the employees (and their families too). Many of these Japanese companies have aging products, products designed specifically for certain customers (particular of Japanese nature because of the language barrier) and most of them are not the so-called world products, no active & intelligent engineering efforts to "localize" the products, boated human resources, and worst of all, management who are not held accountable for their inabilities. Looking back, in the last 10 years, Japanese companies rarely made as much money (percentage wise) in comparison to their counterparts in the western world. There were more red ink than black ink especially given their size. Put it simply, they are stuck with too many "wrong" products and too many "employees" with the out-dated/wrong skillsets. Due to the social infrastructure, they are not allowed to implement massive lay-off. If the rumor turns out to be true, the result is mostly a slower eventual death. Looking back at history, NEC Semiconductors was rated #1 for memory/microprocessor in 1987 and #10 for SOC/Fabless in 2007 (per Gartner/Dataquest). It now exists only under the shadow of Renesas and is about to spun off hence no longer a whole.
Japanese semiconductor companies are unique in the way that they operate like charity houses.
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chipmonk
2/8/2012 2:14 PM EST
The Japanese are getting old and slow.
Challenged by the combination of fabless companies in the US who have xferred technology, designs and business to Foundries in lower - cost Taiwan and So. Korea ( who are hungry for business even at low margin ) and the consequent loss of market share in the still enormous N. American market, once huge Japanese brands ( like Sony ) have failed to respond ( with technology, cost - cutting & scale ). Instead system and component ( semiconductor ) houses in Japan have gradually abandoned the price driven N. American market, remained content with their own domestic market that allows high margin and consequently have been shrinking.
But Japan can ill afford to abdicate the cost-driven but still enormous US consumer electronics / auto market to the So. Koreans as even low margins generate huge profit which is then inevitably invested into new technologies that ultimately drive established but smaller competitors out of the market.
Japan has double the population of Germany so cannot follow the strategy of the latter of exporting just BMWs and machine tools. Japan has to continue exporting mid-range consumer products as well.
Mega catastrophe like last years Tsunami still brings out the old Bushido spirit.
Just look at how after some initial fumbling they Japan has undertaken a massive clean up & rebuilding that would have daunted any other "mature/western" societies.
Japan is capable of doing the same for semiconductor as well and triumph over the combination between the Fabless wonders in US and TSMC / Samsung. With whatever system / OEM business Japan has left they can afford at least 2 state of the art 28 nm 300/450 mm Fabs / Foundries and keep them loaded.
To pull ahead of the newcomers who get free access to US R&D, Japan needs to invest a lot more in its own R&D and become aggressive in turning the results into innovative end products.
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Rabbi
2/8/2012 2:57 PM EST
In review of the country's transfer of payments for the past four quarters and the exceedingly anemic economic growth for the past decade, it could be deduced that their Central Bank is literally strangling the country's entire economy, right before our eyes.
Naturally, their semiconductor industry is drained and in full retreat.
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dylan.mcgrath
2/8/2012 3:05 PM EST
I am going to play the devil's advocate here. In the EE Times Forum and everywhere else I look, this proposal, assuming it's really on the table, is greeted as dead on arrival. Like a desperation move. Well, maybe it is.
But my question is: Why not? These companies have operated for years building chips for their own companies' end products or for mostly Japanese customers. It was a good arrangement in its day, but times have changed. Why not pool their resources and see what they can do? Their best option is to get all of their best designers together and see what they can do (kind of like an All Star team, if you will). Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. But the status quo is not a realistic option. Why not roll the dice?
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junko.yoshida
2/8/2012 6:03 PM EST
A good point. In other words, WHAT OTHER options do they have? Right?
If they don't do some sort of a merger like this, they would be just standing still...
But here's the thing. If they are going to get together, and if they are going to pitch it as a "dream team," we do need a leader who can articulate that dream.
When I cover tech industry, what excites me more than anything else is when people I talk to can convey the sense of mission they feel. Whatever a new initiative, project, merger, I need to hear from someone with a passion: "This is why we are doing this!"
Rather than Nikkei reporting that Japan, belatedly, adopting the fabless business model. That's so-o-o yesterday.
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DMcCunney
2/8/2012 6:43 PM EST
This seems to me to be one more instance of a general issue in computing that has been present for decades. As technology advances, the costs of doing the required R&D, building factories, and making your own components become so high that very few can afford them, and some that can are actually joint ventures and consortiums. Increasingly design shifts to using off the shelf components and manufacturing continues to consolidate to get economies of scale.
The only was I can see this working, given the variety of technologies, design flows, and product types within the organizations to be combined is a ruthless and clear-headed assessment of where opportunities are, what opportunities make economic sense for the converged entity to pursue, and most important, what the new entity should simply *stop* doing.
Given the consensus oriented style of decision making in Japanese industry, I foresee problems. Japanese firms can execute blindingly fast once they have achieved consensus on what should be done, because part of the process of building consensus means that all concerned will agree on what needs to be done and understand what their part in the new direction is and what they must do to achieve it.
But building that consensus takes time, and will be made more complex by the fact that formerly seperate entities will be thrown together into one. Given the speed at which the industry is changing, is there *time* to come to a consensus before it becomes too late?
I think what is really needed is a leader who can simply say "This is what we're going to do.", without the lengthy effort of getting everyone to agree on the needed changes. Agreement can come later. A new direction and overall plan for getting there has to come first, and quickly.
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WW Thinker
2/9/2012 1:07 AM EST
In theory, any culture can execute blindingly fast once decision is made. The issue with Japanese companies is: 1) rarely any people at the driving seats dare to make any real & substantial change because of either the retirement benefit (did you notice many of them became consultants at subsidiary companies) or not wanting to upset their peers; 2) not paranoid enough (should hire Andy Grove to be national mentor:). Many of the management in Japan do not want to see the hard fact: a failed business translates to more lay-off eventually. At the same time, I believe that the Samurai spirit also plays the part. A good Samurai is proud of himself, what he has achieved in life, how he can behave in life. A failed leader by no means reflect a Samurai. Without the gut to push through a solution that is both unpopular to the social culture and will not likely be publicly endorsed by other peers, the leaders chose to keep quiet, walk the old path, or implement the superficial changes. Consequently, their companies will keep on failing. In fact, Sony is a tragedy. With movies, music, mobile phones, TVs, HiFis, MP3, Walkman, CD, computers, services, yet its valuation is so much smaller than Apple who is a late comer and a newbie in the world of consumer electronics. The biggest problem of Sony should be "silos between the various divisions". The 2nd problem of Sony is: it was not led by a visionary with enough charisma and the ability to understand "digitization makes the impossible possible". I wish many of the failing Japanese companies can get up on their feet again.
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timemerchant
2/12/2012 4:51 AM EST
Sony went south under the leadership of a westerner. I never worked in any consensus companies, but corporates in the West have leaders who think they have a direct connection to God and any suggestions that are not in line are seen as dissenting. How is HP doing with their CEOs? Think about the losses to shareholders and employers there. In fact, strong US leaders have been responsible for the collapse of Enron and a host of others.
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R.J.D.
2/8/2012 8:33 PM EST
Cynically: Maybe that is exactly why GF is suggested as part of the mix - delegate the tough decisions to a foreign entity so when the tough actions kick in, such as older fab closures and job losses it can be blamed on the culturally ignorant outsiders.
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hm
2/8/2012 9:29 PM EST
Merger out of fear may not be very good for long term. They must define path for next two decades to make this merger successful.
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kurukku
2/9/2012 2:21 AM EST
I have seen many aged Japanese bosses underestimate or hate Western technology advancements, and try to isolate and confine themselves within Japan. Instead, they should acknowledge the technology advancements and try to bring better results with real Japanese spirit. They are deep, but not fast enough.
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junko.yoshida
2/9/2012 10:23 AM EST
I think many of us feel that this JVs won't work unless there is a strong leadership to shepherd the project. But if we are to go one level deeper, and pick things apart -- in terms of what Panasonic can offer; what Fujitsu has; and what Renesas can bring to the table, what do you see that you like? Are there any specific technologies, products and IPs does any of you want...or "must have"?
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Steve Szirom (InsideChips)
2/9/2012 11:10 AM EST
Intellectually and strategically, it makes sense for Japan to combine Renessas, Panasonic and Fujitsu chip manufacturing into one entity. After all, it is difficult for individual companies (except Intel) to keep up with fab innovations due to costs. Organizationally, it seems it will be difficult...perhaps that is why they brought in Global Foundries into the deal. At best, it will take time to merge these manufacturing units effectively. I think this will make Japan IC chips more of a captive market within its own systems divisions. Steve Szirom, InsideChips.com.
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junko.yoshida
2/9/2012 1:13 PM EST
If it pans out that way (making Japan Inc chips more of a captive market), it's too bad. Because that's exactly what they are doing and it won't fix anything.
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DMcCunney
2/10/2012 3:18 PM EST
We hope not. Making Japan IC chips a captive market within it's systems division is essentially what they have now, and that market simply isn't big enough.
The new entity needs to create products it can sell to the *world* market to be viable.
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Bert22306
2/10/2012 5:35 PM EST
I'm not so attuned to this business side of the industry, but nothing about any of these plans for the future seems strange to me. In the global playing field, when (for example) the different fabs have a hard time surviving as separate entities, the natural reaction is to consolidate. As a first step. The next step might be to do what the US did, and use increasingly fabs from overseas.
As to companies like Sony, that's a different discussion. It seems to me that Sony just didn't jump on the digital bandwagon fast enough. But there's nothing unusual about that either. Sony had the Walkman, for instance, which in hindsight could have been morphed into a digital player like the iPod. Of course, the iPod has also had its day in the sun, and for now, it is the iPhone and iPad that make everyone giddy.
But these are all cyclic things. The more trendy, the shorter lived. You can bet on it. And this holds most especially for personal handheld gadgets. Who wants to be seen with yesterday's fashion accessory? Come now. No one should make the mistake of assuming that today's fashionable gadgets will last a day longer than yesterday's, right?
I see a Japan Inc. that is going through the same transitions as US companies, maybe delayed by a few years. And yes, it's certainly true, the design-by-committee prevalent in Japan is not always a good thing.
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hm
2/10/2012 9:12 PM EST
Aggressive marketing may be another area. If semiconductor business of this merger closely work with Arrow, Avnet or other distributor, they may get very good market share and user can have easy access to this chips.
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PV-Geek
2/11/2012 5:09 PM EST
Ultimately, it boils down to a cost issue. The cost of developing new processes, building and tooling new fabs, and what you can charge for the wafers you produce. Japan is an expensive place to do business and it is difficult to attract external business when competing with the likes of TSMC. It wouldn't surprise me that they consider a wide array of consolidation and/or JV opportunities to try and improve competitiveness.
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timemerchant
2/12/2012 5:01 AM EST
I think Fujitsu make FPGAs for Lattice Semi. Take a printer apart and look at the chips inside. I took a Canon and Epson printer apart as they cost the same as ink (included ink), and I wanted to make some art statements. To go to Avnet for chips as a printer or camera manufacturer means you had no input into the SoC, which is unlikely to work in those highly competitive markets. Any US camera or printer manufacturers (or large TV manufacturers or any commodity electronics?). There is still a very big captive Japanese market, but the next battle could be battery/hybrid vehicles and Japan is unlikely to buy batteries from the USA when they have suck big players in that market. Might as well round them out with power electronics and SoCs as well as there seems to be some margin there. Avnet's shareholders would want to make more than they would allow the Japanese OEMs to make, so no need for greedy middlemen. As for a range of chips, look at TI and Freescale for divergent devices even with an ARM core.
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tb1
2/13/2012 3:23 PM EST
"There is still a very big captive Japanese market, but the next battle could be battery/hybrid vehicles and Japan is unlikely to buy batteries from the USA when they have such big players in that market."
Interesting because I think Toyota is buying their batteries from Tesla for their upcoming plug-in hybrid Prius and all-electric Rav4. Japan and China build laptop batteries, and Tesla connects them up in a way that can be used in a car.
In any case, with each generation of IC, fabs become more and more expensive to build--billions of dollars. It is difficult to do the design and fab in one company because there are few designs that will have enough volumes to pay for the fab (Intel with its processors being the one exception). You can try to achieve this by combining companies, but it can be difficult to get the balance right.
So maybe they are taking the right approach.
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