Analyst: waning interest in femtocells is only temporary

One market research groups thinks so, but contends the slowing rate of deployment schedules by mobile network operators is only temporary, and a consequence of the global recession.

ABI Research senior analyst Aditya Kaul says revised 2009 estimates project shipments at slightly less than a million. "Femtocell rollouts to date have been limited, controlled ones," he says. "But ABI Research expects that 2010 will see shipments climbing well above a million units."

Despite the slowing interest, Kaul maintains the signs are there that vendors are gearing up for a big push.

"For example picoChip (Bath, England), one of the industrys main silicon suppliers, recently announced a multi-million dollar injection of funding, probably geared towards a ramp-up. There is a lot of similar activity behind the scenes, and new partnerships which point to preparation for a major market expansion."

Kaul stresses femtocell investment can be done in stages with fairly low entry points, making it easier to justify in a tight financial market.

But the analyst also warns of near-term challenges facing vendors and operators alike, not least price.

Even though femtocell business models could be enabled at various price points, the psychological barrier of a $100 femtocell cannot be overlooked, Kaul stresses.

Another caveat is that, so far, large-scale deployments have only been simulated in computer models: real-world rollouts could pose challenges. Yet, according to Kaul: "These challenges are all valid, but none of them are show-stoppers – there is no 'elephant in the room' that will pose a major obstacle to large-scale deployment."

Meanwhile, even as the emerging femtocell market has started dividing into various classes of the tiny base stations - residential, enterprise and outdoor/carrier being the main ones - and companies are beginning to target models that support 8-16 users or even more, AirWalk Communications (Richardson, TX) is about to unveil its EdgePoint PRO, an enterprise femtocell for CDMA air-interface technology based cellular services.

The units are targeted at offices and other in-building facilities.

AirWalk will demonstrate the unit at the CTIA Wireless congress which takes place in between April 1-3 in Las Vegas.

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