Panelists envision next 100 years of pc-boards

Panelists envision next 100 years of pc-boards
SAN JOSE, Calif. — In a wide-ranging panel discussion peppered with references to Star Trek, unknown energy sources and photonic computing, panelists at the PCB Design Conference West here Tuesday (March 11) attempted to predict the next 100 years of the pc-board. The only consensus was that we can't begin to imagine what the future might be like.

Still, panelists were able to make some predictions. They said new substrate materials will be available within the next decade or two, that biological and genetic engineering will become an increasingly important part of electronics, and that the photonic transistor may become a reality during this century.

Moderator Ken Gilleo, contributing editor of Electronic Packaging & Production magazine, challenged panelists to "have some fun guessing what circuitry will look like as we move forward." His first question was whether electrons would still be used in 2100, or whether it will be "photons or something else."

"Electronics are cheap, and we've got a ready source of them," said Joseph Fjelstad, founder of technology development firm SiliconPipe Inc. "But if the photonic transistor becomes real in the next 100 years, all bets are off."

Happy Holden, manager of advanced technologies at Westwood Associates Inc., noted that in the original Star Trek series, the Enterprise was wired with photonic logic. But in subsequent series, he said, that was no longer the case. "Photons are passe," Holden said. "I would vote for genetic engineering as a key element of electronics."

Gilleo pushed the photon theme at various points in the panel. "I think it should all be optical," he said. "Let's get rid of the solder and do it with light."

"Photonics is very, very directional," warned Fjelstad. "You don't have the latitude you might with other technologies, if something gets in the way."

Gilleo asked if we'll even need circuit boards 100 years from now. "We won't have circuit boards as we recognize them today, but we'll have some form of interconnect," Holden said. "It could be conductive Buckyball plastics or things like that."

In response to a question about future substrates, Holden said designers won't have to wait 100 years. He predicted that "engineered thermal plastic" substrate materials that can be recycled, and have low dielectric constants, will become available in 10 to 15 years. "And probably after that," he said, "we'll have a substrate that can change from insulator to conductor by some magical means."

Gilleo agreed, stating that the future will probably bring dielectrics that can become conductive. But it's not a new idea, he said, noting that Thomas Edison was working with "conversion circuits" as early as 1904.

Phil Zarrow, president of ITM Consulting, said the 21st century will bring about a merger of technology and bioengineering, creating "things we can't even conceive of right now." What this may result in, he said, is "something we won't call a computer, that will communicate using energy sources we don't know about, and at the end of it's life, it's edible."

When Gilleo speculated about "implantable" computing devices that become part of human bodies, an audience member asked, "will we have to wear hats that say 'Intel Inside?'"

More down to earth, perhaps, was a discussion about "wearable" computing devices. Holden noted that in 1990, forecasters were predicting that programmable liquid crystal fabrics would be made into garments by 2000. "Look at who doesn't buy electronics today, and that's the opportunity for the future," he said.

Possibly the most accurate prediction was Holden's statement that the panel won't be able to predict the big discoveries of the 21st century. "Most predictions of the future don't come true, because they are limited by our current constraints," he said.

The PCB Design Conference West is co-located with the High Density Interconnect (HDI) Expo March 10-14 at the San Jose Convention Center.