Intel faces risks by dropping 157-nm, says analyst

As reported, Intel disclosed it has dropped 157-nm tools from its roadmap and will not use the technology in IC production. Instead, the company will extend 193-nm scanners for three process technology generations, including the 90-, 65-, and 45-nm nodes (see today's story ).

Intel is taking a huge gamble. "As you know, 45-nm is in 2007 for volume production at Intel, so many things can still happen," said Nicolas Gaudois, director of equity research at Deutsche Bank in London.

"Also, it remains unclear to me if Intel can be certain of having either extended 193-nm tools ready by then for critical layers or EUV tools available," Gaudois said.

The analyst believes that it is "near impossible" that EUV will be ready at the 45-nm node. "Then, at 30-nm in 2009, there are no guarantees for EUV being there and being mature enough," he said. "Intel would then have no second horse to bet on due to their exclusive support to EUV."

Intel, in turn, may have to hedge its bets. "I am not convinced they will not have any beta 157-nm tools either," according to the analyst.