News & Analysis
Winners, losers from Apple iPad roll out
Dylan McGrath
1/28/2010 2:00 AM EST
Winners
Apple. An easy one. Ben Reitzes, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said he believes Apple could ship 4.9 million units in 2010 and another 8.7 million units in 2011.
Apple aficionados' wallets. Tim Luke, an analyst at Barclays Capital, said in a report circulated Wednesday that the iPad's cost—starting at $499—and monthly service plans—starting at $14.99—were less expensive than many expected.
Qualcomm Inc. The iPad will be available exclusively through carrier AT&T for a period of three months, Luke said, but Barclays believes Verizon may also carry the product by June. "We see this as potentially constructive for wireless semi leader Qualcomm with a breakthrough in beginning to support Apple," Luke wrote.
Broadcom Corp., Triquint Semiconductor Inc. and Skyworks Solutions Inc. Luke said Barclays views the launch as a positive for Broadcom due to the potential for content in the device similar to the iPhone 3GS, which utilizes a Broadcom WiFi and Bluetooth transceiver combination solution. In the RF area, Luke believes the launch is constructive for Triquint and Skyworks Solutions Inc., which each support the Infineon baseband solution in the iPhone 3GS.
LG Display and Innolux Display Corp. According to Vinita Jakhanwal, a principal analyst at market research firm iSuppli Corp., these firms are the two most likely suppliers of the iPad's in-plane switching LCD. Jakhanwal added that the iPads display is probably sourced from three suppliers, like other Apple products.
Losers
Amazon.com's Kindle. Apple CEO Steve Jobs praised Amazon's work with Kindle during the iPad launch, but it's clear the iPad poses a clear and present danger to the e-book reader. As author and New York Times blogger Nick Bilton put it, iPad is "now clearly the best device on the market for those who enjoy reading."
Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. Luke speculated that the iPad may pose a long-term challenge to the microprocessor vendors because iPad pricing is similar to that of a netbook but the product will offer strong features and functionality.
NAND flash vendors. Since iPad won't be available until late March, the product hype won't provide a near-term boost to stocks of NAND flash chip makers, though it may help the mid- to long-term NAND outlook, Luke wrote. The iPad's memory density—16-, 32- or 64-GB—appears to be at the lower to middle end of the market's expectations, according to Luke.
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emerson1
1/28/2010 12:51 PM EST
ARM is also a big winner here, iPad is the first commercially viable non-x86 based netbook competitor(mostly because Apple is behind the product and less due to technology).
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sxs537
1/28/2010 5:09 PM EST
So many inaccuracies in the analyst statements:
1)The price is not $499 if you want 3G (that is the $14 plans being mentioned). You add another $130 for 3G.
2) Not sure how the analyst estimated the $4.7 M figures for shipment. It seems that the analyst just added up the sales figures for 3 Qrts of apples sales in 2008 (apples fiscal ends in Sept) and projected it.
3)iPad does not offer a lot of features that Netbook users currently have (camera, 1080P HD, office productivity, physical keyboard, multi tasking etc). So I do not see Intel/MS losing yet on this. Apple has just produce a bigger version of the iPod touch.
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research90
1/30/2010 2:31 PM EST
We understand the analysts make the statement from air. But at least try to be consistent.
Please explain "Since iPad won't be available until late March, the product hype won't provide a near-term boost to stocks of NAND flash chip makers" but it is beneficial to Quaucomm, Broadcom and other wireless vendors.
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TRSHANER
2/1/2010 12:42 PM EST
I can't agree with this statement:
"As author and New York Times blogger Nick Bilton put it, iPad is "now clearly the best device on the market for those who enjoy reading."
Has Nick Bilton even used a Kindle? I don''t think so! The Kindle uses a non-backlit display (e-ink) that relies on ambient lighting exactly the same as a paper book! It is more natural and easier on the eyes! If you've never used an e-reader with this technology, then you have NO business comparing the Kindle to Apple's new iPad with a conventional "laptop like" LCD display panel.
That said, if Apple can come up with a reasonably priced "non-backlit" COLOR version of the iPad, then I might have to agree with NY Times blogger Nick Bilton. A number of companies are working on this technology, so it's just a matter of time.......I'm looking into my crystal ball and see an Apple iPad II with this very type of display, just in time for Christmas 2010! These 1st generation iPads will be boat obsolete by January 2011.
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