Analyst: 1Q off to decent start for ICs

Some IC forecasters see a slight, seasonal dip in IC demand for Q1, which is worse-than-expected. Others see a slightly different picture.

Chip makers like TI, Hynix and others are saying the market ''is not as weak'' as they expected for Q1, said Bill McClean, president of IC Insights Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.), at an event here. ''In general, from what I hear, it's better in Q1,'' he said.

The IC market is expected to hit $270.7 billion in 2010, up 15 percent over 2009, he said. In 2009, the IC market hit $235.4 billion, down 10 percent. 2010 ''is a conservative forecast,'' he said. ''This could go over 20 percent.''

On a quarterly basis, the IC market is expected to fall 7 percent in Q1, decline 1 percent in Q2, rise 9 percent in Q3, and rise 4 percent in Q4, according to the firm.

There is a good possibility the market will only decline 3-to-4 percent in Q1, meaning the IC industry could have a ''bigger year,'' he said.

There are other positive signs, according to figures from the firm. The silicon foundry market is projected to grow 24 percent in 2010. The NAND market is expected to hit $18.807 billion in 2010, up from $15.416 billion in 2009. The NOR market is expected to hit $4.497 billion in 2010, up from $4.409 billion in 2009.

Cell phone shipments are expected to hit 1.24 billion units in 2010, up 10 percent over 2009. PC shipments are expected to hit 324 million units in 2010, up from 286 million units in 2009.