News & Analysis
ARM will overtake Intel in netbooks, smartbooks, says analyst
Peter Clarke
9/28/2009 9:42 AM EDT
Indeed Castellano sees the market splitting between Intel-powered netbooks and ARM-powered smartbooks, and offering slightly different market offerings. Netbooks will cost more than $200 and offer just 3.5 hours of operation on battery while being Windows-compatible. In contrast ARM smartbooks will cost less than $200, run Linux or Chrome operating systems and last 8 hours between recharges.
As such Castellano asserts that ARM processors, not Intel's Atom, will benefit from the current technology-economic cycle. In 2009 netbooks (powered by Intel) will hit 22.1 million units while the market for smartbooks powered by ARM will number 1.4 million.
In 2010, Intel netbooks will move to 31.1 million units while ARM smartbooks climb to 7.8 million units. In 2012 Intel will ship in 43.2 million netbooks while ARM processors will control 52.9 million smartbooks giving ARM 55 percent of the market and Intel 45 percent. Castellano does not foresee any other processor architectures breaking into the fast-growing sector.
The growing trend to offer subsidized computer equipment as a part of a service contract for 3G is also like to favor smartbooks over netbooks, the company said. "Sales of netbooks bundled with 3G services in the Taiwan market reached 15,000 units in August, accounting for 50 percent of total retail sales. Smartbook numbers, because of their design and need for cloud connectivity, will grow even more strongly," the Information Network said in a statement.
Related links and articles:
In-Stat offers overview of ARM versus Intel
ARM announces 'Osprey' A9 core as Atom-beater
ARM throws its weight behind the Linux Foundation
Microsoft Windows Embedded CE 6.0 on the Intel Atom processor
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CharlieCL
9/29/2009 12:11 AM EDT
In 2010
Intel netbooks 31.1 million units
ARM smartbooks 7.8 million units.
In 2012
Intel will ship in 43.2 million
ARM will control 52.9 million
Intel avg growth rate per year: 19.40%
ARM avg growth rate per year: 289.10%
Are you kidding all of us? This kind of market research report of April 1st should not be on EE Times.
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ww250
9/29/2009 4:29 AM EDT
CharlieCL: ARM also refers to the ARM architecture used by many of ARM Ltd's partners, it's "everybody else" vesus Intel, not just ARM the company itself per se.
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CharlieCL
9/29/2009 9:51 AM EDT
ww250: I know. This can not explain ARM's exponential growth vs Intel's linear growth in netbook/smartbook.
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jyoshida
9/29/2009 4:31 PM EDT
This market figure, I'd have to say, is the most optimistic number for ARM I have ever seen. As long as smartbooks are concerned, I haven't found anyone in the market research community saying that the Netbook vs. Smartbook nubmer would flip any time soon -- certainly in 2012 or even in 2014, for that matter.
I recently did a research on the netbook, smartbook, MID market. See the story entitled "Netbook, smartbook, tablet PC: Can anybody straighten this out?" here:
http://www.eetimes.com/showArticle.jhtml;?articleID=220200269
Even, the emergence of slim clients for cloud computing included, The Information Network's numbers may be a little unrealistic.
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