Break Points
Computer Science enrollment statistics: Is the decline slowing?
Jack Ganssle
3/23/2009 10:49 AM EDT
The data comprises a subset of the universe of schools, but presumably paints a reasonably-accurate picture of CS education.
First, some bad news (assuming you, like me, wish for more fresh blood in this industry): BSCS degrees were down 10% last year, though it's not clear to me what that is down in respect to.
It appears, from a crude graph, that they're off 10% over the previous year, which is a pretty stunning reduction. But that's better than 2007's precipitous crash of 20%. So the rate of decline has decreased a bit. Over 20,000 BSCSs were granted in 2004, compared to around 10k last year.
But CS enrollments are up about 8%, which bodes well for degrees in a few years as this bubble of students graduate.
BS degrees go overwhelmingly to white men. 88% go to males. Whites earn 66% of the degrees, followed by Asians (15%).
Interestingly, PhDs degrees are as hot as financial bailout plans. Under 1000 were awarded in 2002; 2008's number was a whopping 1800. Unemployment for newly-minted PhDs is only 1%. I wonder how that will change in this challenging year.
There has been a sharp decline in the number of PhDs winding up in academia; over the same 6 year period the proportion of those going to industry has nearly doubled to almost 60%.
Over half of PhD students in the US are foreigners. Do students from overseas value advanced degrees more than us in the US?
Young people bailed from computer science at the beginning of the decade when the dot com implosion happened. Many had been lured by the promise of quick Silicon-Valley wealth; when that dream was shown to be ephemeral they went into business and flooded Wall Street in pursuit of their first million by age 30. Now that dream is bankrupt, too.
I can't help but wonder if students will find a more rational way to select a career. I still feel the best advice for a young person seeking out a career is: "Find a passion and follow it. You'll be doing this for 40 years, so make sure you're having fun."
Jack G. Ganssle is a lecturer and consultant on embedded development issues. He conducts seminars on embedded systems and helps companies with their embedded challenges. Contact him at jack@ganssle.com. His website is www.ganssle.com.
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vocaro
3/23/2009 11:38 AM EDT
Is the decline is slowing? I'm not sure, but proofreading definitely seems to be on the way out.
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alandmar
3/23/2009 5:58 PM EDT
Some observations...
Departments show enrollment is up for the first time in 6 years...I think that happens to coincide, that takes us back to 2002 or so...If I remember correctly we were still in the middle of the .com disaster, I graduated with my bachelors in CS in 2003, in a record sized class of graduates for my university...my prospects for employment were very bleak (it took a 3.9 GPA to get an interview with most companies) I think todays graduating classes have been directly impacted by this...just as we see enrollment is up this year...as the financial markets have really tanked...I would expect this.
As for a higher percentage of foreign students pursuing advanced degrees...I think this is pretty obvious. When every job application asks "Are you a US citizen?" I think it would make sense that more foreign students would pursue something beyond a BS. If the country only allows on the order of 50k H1B visas every year...having a PhD or a masters certainly would increase the odds of obtaining an H1B and finding employment. Perhaps you can make the argument that foreign students value advanced degrees far more, but I think it is more a result of being able to find employment without needing a visa.
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krwada
3/24/2009 1:24 PM EDT
Computer Science degree? From what I can tell, a ton of embedded engineers hail from the ranks of EE, or better.... EECS. That is Electrical Engineering and Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.
But alas ... enrollment in those majors are declining too!
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jaranguren
3/26/2009 5:03 AM EDT
And what about the enrollment statistics in EE or CS for countries like India and China? As far as I have read / heard, there are thousands of new graduated EEs and CSs in those country every year, thus creating big erosion in the job market for those professions in counties like USA and Europe.
And yes, America is educating foreigners who might be returning back to their home countries to make them very competitive. Nowadays you not only have manufacturing in China for instance, nowadays you also have design and development in Asia as well.
USA / Europe is losing its competitive advantage in the technology arena, and that competitive advantage is (was) knowledge and people.
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Scottish Martin
3/27/2009 5:22 AM EDT
Over the course of three decades working in the UK technology sectors, I have found my CS degree to be a major disadvantage. Or rather, my CS degree was a major disadvantage to the ill-qualified "engineers" that constitute the majority on many software development teams. Someone with a degree in Animal Husbandry, who has written a bit of C code, is a long way short of being a professional software engineer.
I prefer to work with competent professionals (i.e. qualified, trained and experienced) regardless of their nationality.
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